Kazakhstan, which remained a bulwark of stability in the international grain Council's wheat production forecasts for almost six months, still lost ground in August. Experts lowered expectations by half a million tons, from 12.9 to 12.4 million . Our grain growers can take comfort in the fact that this figure is still almost 1 million tons higher than the last bad harvest season.
The same negative dynamics for grain in General – the forecast for the month "lost weight" by the same 0.5 million tons, from 18.2 to 17.7 million.
Kazakhstan is confidently closing its domestic consumption in the 2020/21 marketing year, which is projected at 2.4 million tons, and it has almost no plans to buy wheat. But expectations for wheat exports fell from 7.5 to 6.8 million tons, which is at the level of last year. Experts estimate the export potential of all types of grain in the current MG at 9.6 million tons (against 9.5 in the previous season).
The Russian grain market has the greatest influence on Kazakhstan, so let's pay attention to the situation of our neighbor. Its indicators have significantly improved compared to the previous month: in August, the Ministry of agriculture promised the Russian Federation wheat production by 2 million tons more than it promised in July - 80 million tons. In past months, the forecast was more cautious due to expectations of a dry summer. Apparently, the consequences of the drought were not so serious.
Accordingly, exports immediately increased by 1 million rubles. According to the new forecast, the Russian Federation in 2020/21 MG will be able to ship abroad about 38 million tons of wheat, that is, 5.5 million tons more than was sold in the previous MG.
In General, Russia will produce 120.4 million tons of grain, which will allow it to ship 72.8 million tons abroad.