Crop expectations in Kazakhstan reduced by 0.5 million tons
Kazakhstan, which remained a bulwark of stability in the international grain Council's wheat production forecasts for almost six months, still lost ground in August. Experts lowered expectations by half a million tons, from 12.9 to 12.4 million . Our grain growers can take comfort in the fact that this figure is still almost 1 million tons higher than the last bad harvest season.

The same negative dynamics for grain in General – the forecast for the month "lost weight" by the same 0.5 million tons, from 18.2 to 17.7 million.

Kazakhstan is confidently closing its domestic consumption in the 2020/21 marketing year, which is projected at 2.4 million tons, and it has almost no plans to buy wheat. But expectations for wheat exports fell from 7.5 to 6.8 million tons, which is at the level of last year. Experts estimate the export potential of all types of grain in the current MG at 9.6 million tons (against 9.5 in the previous season).

The Russian grain market has the greatest influence on Kazakhstan, so let's pay attention to the situation of our neighbor. Its indicators have significantly improved compared to the previous month: in August, the Ministry of agriculture promised the Russian Federation wheat production by 2 million tons more than it promised in July - 80 million tons. In past months, the forecast was more cautious due to expectations of a dry summer. Apparently, the consequences of the drought were not so serious.

Accordingly, exports immediately increased by 1 million rubles. According to the new forecast, the Russian Federation in 2020/21 MG will be able to ship abroad about 38 million tons of wheat, that is, 5.5 million tons more than was sold in the previous MG.

In General, Russia will produce 120.4 million tons of grain, which will allow it to ship 72.8 million tons abroad.

General position of the grain market
The August review of the International grain Council increased the forecast of production of all types of grain in 2020/21 MG to 2230.4 million tons. Last month, there was a noticeable drop in this indicator, immediately by 13 million tons, to 2224.7 million tons. Thus, compared to July, the production forecast added almost 6 million tons. This was largely due to the expectation of unprecedented corn harvests, as well as the upward revision of wheat, sorghum and rye harvests.
In 2019/20, 2181 million tons of grain were produced, that is, the harvest of 2020/21 MG promises to be a record, exceeding last year's figures by almost 50 million tons.

Prospects for grain consumption in 2020/21 also increased by 4 million tons compared to July, and today this figure is 2222 million tons.

Grain reserves at the end of 2020/21 MG may grow to 630 million tons, mainly due to wheat.

They will also sell more grain. For the month, the forecast for trade increased by 5 million tons, amounting to 395 million tons, which is + 1% of last year's figure.

In July, the forecast for wheat for 2020/21 MG, due to a drop in production indicators, fell immediately by 5 million tons. In the August survey, wheat production added 1.3 million tons to 763.3 million tons. This figure is 1 million tons higher than in the previous 2019/20 MG.
Crop consumption is expected to be at a high level - 749 million tons. Although the forecast decreased for the month by 1 million tons, it is still 5 million tons higher than in 2019/20 MG.

The projected increase in production slightly improved the forecast for trade, from 180 to 181 million tons.

But the forecast for reserves increased immediately by 5.6 million tons, amounting to 293.6 million tons. In comparison with 2019/20 MG, wheat reserves promise to grow by 14 million tons at once.

Soy beans
The soy bean market, which looked most unsettling in the spring months, is showing increasing stability towards the end of the summer. Against the background of the improvement in the us yield situation, there is also a significant improvement in the overall forecast.
Experts believe that 2020/21 MG will show the world maximum in soybean production – 373 million tons, which is as much as 8 million tons higher than expected in July. In comparison with the poor harvest of 2019/20 MG, the result of the new season should be more immediately by 44 million tons, or 10%.

From Brazil and other South American countries, there are now large shipments of soybeans around the world, and demand from China is growing. This means a solid increase in consumption and growth in world trade-up to 164 million tons. This is 3 million tons higher than the previous forecast - and a potential global peak.

Forecasts for the volume of reserves also increased significantly - by 4 million tons, to 52 million tons. And if you compare with the spring forecasts, this figure for the summer months has already increased by 14 million tons. In the spring, experts promised that the level of world reserves will be below average. Today's indicators can already be called a good average level.

Rice production in 2020/21 MG promises to show a new historical high, as the yield of the world's leading exporters has increased. According to experts, 505 million tons will be produced, which is an increase of 2% in annual terms.
The forecast itself decreased slightly compared to last month, however, this figure is 8 million tons higher than in 2019/20 MG.

Trade in 2019-20 MG was at a multi-year low of 42 million tons. This was largely due to the slow pace of product shipments, especially by Thai exporters. But in 2020/21 MG, this figure promises to finally rise to 44.5 million tons.

Rice reserves in 2020/21 will be at the level of 181.4 million tons, which is 4 million tons more than in 2019/20 MG. In the August forecast, there is a slight decrease relative to July, but in General, this is a world record. The main rice producers have accumulated considerable reserves of the product.

Unsuccessful for corn 2019/20 MG is smoothed by expectations of an unprecedented harvest in 2020/21. According to experts, the harvest will amount to 1166.5 million tons. During the month, this figure increased by 2 million tons. The indicator should cover the previous year by 46 million tons at once.
Harvests in the US are recovering, and the intensity of corn shipments around the world is also increasing, so the forecasts for trade are favorable. It is expected that 177 million tons will be sold in 2020/21 my, and this figure increased by 1.5 million tons over the month. Compared to last year, 6.2 million tons more will be sold.

Even taking into account the unprecedented harvest, corn stocks will not be able to reach the level of previous years. They are projected to be around 288 million tons. This figure is not small, but just two years ago, the reserves of this crop were 324 million tons.

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