The international grain Council lowered expectations for a new crop
If the June forecast of IGC for the production of all grains in the world promised 2237,3 million tonnes for the marketing year 2020/21, the July was almost 13 million tons more modest - 2224,7 million tons. The decline was primarily due to the deterioration of expectations for the wheat harvest in the United States, the European Union and Russia, as well as a sharp drop in the forecast of corn production in the United States.
And yet, even this figure (2224.7 million tons) is 48 million tons higher than the production volume last season.

At the same time, the Outlook for grain consumption has remained unchanged since June. A slight increase in indicators for food and industrial use is balanced by a decrease in indicators for feed. In General, a small increase is expected, just over half a million tons (up to 2218.2 million tons)
The forecast of initial reserves of all types of grain increased by 3.6 million tons to 618.6 million tons. But the forecast of final reserves fell in comparison with last month by almost 10 million tons, from 635 to 625.2 million tons. However, inventory numbers remain significantly higher than in previous years.
The world trade forecast, which was held at a record level in the past months, continues to grow. In July, it increased by 1 million tons (to 391.4 million tons)

The usual stability of wheat in July was disrupted by a drop in production indicators. The forecast for 2020/21 MG has been lowered by 5.5 million tons and now stands at 762 million tons, which is completely identical to the previous 2019/20 MG.

This factor has not affected the sales forecast of wheat, in comparison with the previous month, they grew up and insignificant amount of 180.4 million tonnes.
Due to the drop in production and increased demand, the final reserves are at risk of falling by about 2 million tons, amounting to 288 million tons.
Kazakh grain growers may be pleased that, despite the overall decline in production, the forecast for Kazakh wheat remained unchanged. MSZ still believes that our country in 2020/21 MG is able to produce 12.9 million tons of wheat, which is 1.4 million tons more than last year.

Thus, we will easily ensure domestic consumption of 2.3 million tons of the product and export up to 7.5 million tons, remaining among the world's top wheat exporters.

We will buy outside the country at a minimum, no more than 0.1 million tons.
Final reserves will not increase, but they will not decrease either - the previous 1.1 million tons are projected.

In General, July turned out to be a complete calm for Kazakhstan, with all key indicators showing exactly the same figures as in June. The same cannot be said about Russia, whose market has the greatest influence on us.
The Northern neighbor is experiencing a decline in production indicators. Due to the expectation of a dry summer in a number of regions of the Russian Federation, two months ago we saw a decrease in the forecast by 1 million tons. In July, this figure fell by another 1 million tons. Now the total amount of grain produced in 2020/21 MG is estimated at 78 million tons.

At the same time, Russia does not intend to reduce the volume of exports, they will even increase by 1 million tons (up to 37.1)

This, of course, will affect the level of final reserves. The forecast for them in Russia is declining for the second month in a row, having already fallen from 12 to 9 million tons.

Soy beans
It is encouraging to see that the soy bean market is gradually beginning to gain stability, and the forecasts look less sad than in previous months.

Recall that due to a sharp reduction in production in 2019/20 MG, world stocks of soybeans fell immediately by a quarter. This was due to a sharp drop in the crop of legumes from the world's main exporters, primarily in the United States.

The peak of the downgrading of forecasts fell in may, and the following months the indicators began to grow. Thus, the production forecast for 2019/20 MG in June increased by 2 million tons (to 338.6). Next year promises to restore the harvest in the United States, as well as more significant indicators in Brazil and Argentina, so 2020/21 MG will exceed last year's figure by 27 million tons (up to 365.3). Compared to the previous month, it increased by 1.3 million tons, which means an 8% increase in production.

The forecast for trade in 2019/20 MY increased by 3 million tons (to 158 million tons), which is 4% higher than last year. And in 2020/21, it rises to 161.5 million tons. This is mainly due to increased supplies to China, but other markets (mainly Asian) are also showing growth. Therefore, the bean trade will be at a new historical high. Coupled with a poor harvest, this suggests that the price of legumes will be consistently high.

Overall usage is increasing, and market interest is high, so you shouldn't expect a large increase in final inventory. However, they have grown by 3% and now amount to 48 million tons, which is no longer a low figure, as it was back in the spring.

The decrease in the yields of major producers, especially China, Thailand and the United States, slightly lowered the estimate of global rice production in 2019/20 MG. To date, the figure is 496.3 million tons. Trade estimates last season reached a new peak of 44.6 million tons as the population grows and food needs multiply, especially in Asia and Africa. Large accumulations in China and other exporters raised rice stocks to a new historical high of 176.6 million tons, which is 1 million more than in the June forecast.
International prices will remain stable. They will encourage producers to grow more rice. Potentially, global production in the current 2020/2021 MG may reach a record level of 505.3 million tons. Overall usage and product inventory will also continue to grow. Reserves will grow by 5 million tons (up to 181.6 million tons). Trade volumes will increase by 5% (to 44.6 million tons), although they may not reach past highs.
Problematic in 2019/20 MG corn rose slightly compared to last month. Now the production forecast is 1117.2 million tons. None of the experts doubt that this year will be one of the most unsuccessful for culture.
But, in previous forecasts for 2020/21 MG, corn indicators grew by leaps and bounds, promising more and more record harvests. The July forecast slightly lowered the optimism of experts. In comparison with the previous month, production fell by 7.5 million tons at once. Mainly because the recovery of crops in the United States no longer looks so big. Experts predicted 12 million tons less for Americans than last month – 381 million tons.
However, even taking into account the July decline, production forecasts for 2020/21 remain unprecedented – 1164 million tons.
Trade will grow to 175.5 million tons. The production deficit in 2019/20 MG will cause a decrease in the number of final reserves by 12 million tons ( from 300 to 288 million tons)

Made on